Estimating Winning Probabilities in Backgammon Races
Abstract:
In modern backgammon, it is advantageous to know the chances each player has of winning, and to be able to compute the chances without the aid of calculators or pencil and paper. A simple model of backgammon is used to approximate those chances, and a readily computable and sufficiently accurate approximation of that is developed. From there, the model is compared to simulated backgammon games, and the previous approximation is modified to fit the real data.
